Reform Party of Syria (RPS)

Damascus is experiencing a "Lieberman Effect" after his words plunged the regime into a reality mode

RPS Staff - February 8, 2010

In the aftermath of some tough words used by Israeli FM Lieberman in which he threatened the Assad regime directly should war break-out between Syria and Israel, RPS has learned from sources in Damascus that the echoes of Lieberman's words are having a dramatic effect on the regime.

To describe the fear his direct words have caused, one RPS supporter said: "I saw a high-level security man whose usual arrogance was replaced by a humble smirk". FM Lieberman is the first Israeli high official to threaten the Assad family publicly with regime change.

Some in Israel have condemned FM Lieberman for his response to a clear threat against Israeli cities uttered a day earlier by Syrian FM al-Moallem. But the reality on the ground in Syria is that Lieberman may have just saved the region a war and possibly regained the psychological edge over Assad whose own arrogance became a danger to Syria and its people. Most of that arrogance emanates from the belief he has defeated the United States in Iraq.

The Assad regime survives by striking fear in the heart of Syrians and neighboring countries alike. Foreign to its establishment is the reciprocity of that fear, which, after Lieberman's threats, have turned the Assad house on its head. Even when US troops were few hundred miles away from Damascus, the peril to the regime is of minor consequences as compared to the recent direct verbal threat by a neighboring country very much capable of implementing its intentions should it decide to.

Michael J. Totten, in an article published in Commentary Magazine, said it best to describe a certain reality "No dictatorship rules forever. The Alawite regime in Damascus will eventually be replaced, one way or another. Syria will have to reckon with its own demons sooner or later, and it will either hold together and muddle through, or it won’t. Just as every unhappy family is unhappy in its own way, unstable countries fall apart in their own way." It is safe to assume that an engineered change of regime in Syria today, prior to Syria acquiring WMD, is far better than a chaotic one after Syria acquires a deadly military advantage and Assad becomes an unstoppable monster. Those of us Syrians who know Assad well know that his hate for Jews is such that he is willing to kiss-up to any nation that can mirror his feelings, which leads to the second point: Hoping that Assad is his father will come at your own peril.

For some Israelis and moderate countries like Jordan, the specter of hardcore Islamists ruling Syria renders their patience with the flagrant, terror-laden behavior of Assad stretch beyond its limits. And as much as Syrians disagree with the notion that the Muslim Brotherhood, as an organization, is capable of garnering the support, many fear, to dictate the future of Syria, it is unjust for ALL Syrians to suffer the consequences of a belief echoing not only in our neck of the wood but also in European capitals and in the USA. Most Syrians are smart enough to know that Islamism will not save our nation, which explains the intolerance many Syrians have of an oppressive secular government the same way they would have of an oppressive religious government.

Israel will never be safe as long as Arabs cannot turn inward, using political accountability, to build their nations and as long as prevailing ignorance, living side-by-side with tyranny, cannot be replaced with enlightenment to eradicate extreme Islam. To those wishful thinkers who believe security is a balance of interests in a world where 18-year old suicide bombers can dismantle whole economies, it behooves you to revisit the notion that supporting tyrannies is very much the cause of Islamic terror, which started to show its ugliness ever since so many violent Arab countries have been ruled by so many violent tyrants. The ineptness of appeasing tyrants by securing their safety reflects more than on one's election cycle. With extreme Islam raging, it reflects on the safety of all your people.