The analysis below is hypothetical and does not rely on any intelligence whatsoever

RPS Staff - March 8, 2010

In May of 2009, Der Speigel pointed the finger at Hezbollah for killing Rafik Hariri claiming that new evidence supported this conclusion, which mostly was kept secret by the UN Tribunal investigating the matter.

What Der Spiegel did not mention is that the mastermind behind Hariri's murder may have been Mughnieyeh himself, in cohort with the Syrian Intelligence Services and the upper echelon of Hezbollah. With Mughnieyeh dead in Syria in Feb. 2008, Assad could breathe more easily. In fact, Mughnieyeh's widow left Syria immediately thereafter and claimed that: Treason & treachery are behind his murder.

With Mughnieyeh out of the way, Assad concluded he is in the clear now that the only person who can tie the regime and Assad himself to Hariri's murder are gone. He believed he has defeated the West and the sword hanging over his neck.

But little does Assad know that the UN Tribunal has captured some evidence tying him directly. After the Axis of Evil Damascus Dinner (February 25), the tribunal suddenly issued a vague statement (March 6, 2010) confirming that the UN Tribunal is "getting closer" to the real killer. It also confirmed that the murder was carried out by a small cell induced by a larger network.

Such claims are intended for Assad to lose his confidence. In other words, Mughnieyeh's killing does not change the landscape at all for Syria.

Will Assad bite or will he continue ripping the region? Unless the UN Tribunal issues direct indictments tying Assad, terror is the only recipe Assad knows and violence will remain on the menu.